Hey Cowboys,
Happy Monday! A fresh week means a fresh round of DTC, retail, tech, and ecommerce news to unpack. We’re kicking things off with the biggest stories, trends, and moves operators should have on their radar this week.
Today’s lineup 👇 and stories.
Stop Losing Customers You Already Paid For
Today, Marcus and Zoe reveal the overlooked website and customer-experience mistakes that cost ecommerce brands conversions, repeat purchases, and revenue.
Marcus Ohanesian - CEO, Perfect Evolution
Zoe Kahn - Founder & CEO, Inevitable Agency
The State of TikTok Shop Q3 2026
Americans bought an estimated $11.8 billion of products on TikTok Shop in the first half of 2026, double the same period last year, with eMarketer projecting $23.4 billion for the full year, according to a new state of the platform report from Nii A. Ahene published August 23. The same report shows brands have not caught up to the channel: the top 1% of sellers capture 60% of all sales, the bottom half split 0.1%, and one of the platform's most successful agencies tells clients to stay off entirely because they are likely to lose money.
The Rundown:
U.S. TikTok Shop purchases hit an estimated $11.8B in H1 2026 per Momentum Works, double H1 2025, with eMarketer projecting $23.4B for the full year
Seller concentration is extreme: the top 1% take 60% of sales while the bottom 50% of sellers combine for just 0.1%, per Marketplace Pulse
The report frames TikTok Shop as a media decision and a retail decision at once, spanning media, ecommerce, sales, and procurement teams that rarely sit in the same room
The cold start problem is structural: commission-based creators avoid unproven products and the algorithm routes buyers to shops with sales history, so new storefronts get neither; even Kylie Jenner's brand drew only 10 to 20 live viewers per session at launch
Scent Beauty broke the loop with infrastructure first, going from zero to $350,000 in 90 days by seeding 10 to 20 creators a month and scaling what converted
An estimated two million creator-marketer affiliates sell on the platform, but the most productive thousand or so have flooded inboxes, with matchmaking moving off platform into agency rosters, Discords, WhatsApp chats, and the FastMoss-built YFCon trade show
Top affiliate Brandon Hans has driven more than $23 million in sales and screens products against strict requirements before touching them
Platform fees, affiliate commissions, and continuous product samples all come out of margin, while average prices fell in 21 of 27 categories in the first half
The service market has matured with live studios running $10,000 to $20,000 a month, full-service operators like Genni and Avenue Z, and TikTok's own certified partner tiers
Kalodata and FastMoss are the industry's de facto sales data layer, scraped from public data and directionally accurate but never an official baseline
The report warns against unbacked halo-effect claims, calling any agency QBR that credits Amazon or site sales without a measurement plan a red flag
TikTok Shop has doubled again and is on track for $23.4 billion in U.S. sales, but the report's core finding is that the channel's economics only work for brands that treat it as a measurable performance play with real infrastructure, seeded creator tests, and per-SKU margin math run before the pilot. For everyone else, the fees, samples, and commissions go out first, and the sales they were meant to buy may never arrive.
Top Stories: TikTok Served Drug Ads, UnderArmour Ends Rock Deal, Americans Want Protein Fast
TikTok Served Drug Dealer Ads - A Forbes investigation found TikTok serving paid ads from accounts promoting cocaine, opioids, Xanax, and other illegal drugs. A test account received ads from 21 different drug-selling accounts over two weeks, despite TikTok’s policies banning the promotion and sale of illegal drugs. TikTok removed most of the flagged accounts after Forbes contacted the company.
Under Armour Ends Deal with The Rock - Under Armour and Dwayne Johnson have ended their decade-long Project Rock partnership. The brand launched in 2017 and will continue selling existing Project Rock products through October. The split follows Under Armour’s decision to end its partnership with Steph Curry last year as the company resets its marketing strategy.
Americans Want Protein, Fast - Nearly half of Americans say they want more protein, while about half of all meals now take less than five minutes to prepare. Protein-focused foodservice occasions are also up 11% year over year, with demand even higher among GLP-1 users. Retailers are responding with more high-protein products, ready-to-eat meals, and convenient options.
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Made Possible By:
Seguno - the Shopify-native marketing suite for brands that run it themselves.
Insense - The all-in-one UGC and influencer marketing platform.
Postscript - Make more money from every SMS message.
Proxima - Use real conversion data to power your creative briefs.
Northbeam - Measure the “unmeasurable,” make your marketing profitable.
Rokt Aftersell - More profit from the orders you’re already getting.
Universal Ads - TV ads that deliver for performance marketers.
Richpanel - The AI helpdesk that saves you headaches (and money).
SATHI - Affiliate attribution beyond last-click commissions.
Slash - A better business banking platform.
Trendtrack - Track competitors' winning marketing strategies daily.
Tie - The internet’s #1 shopper ID platform.
Proppel - The best recruitment agency for ecom brands and agencies.
See you on the stream,
Ecomm Cowboy Team