The Current Thing: Poppi’s $300M Earnout Goes Flat. The Ecomm Cowboy Show, Monday October 19, 2026
Monday, October 19. We're live. Watch now.

Hey, we're live. PepsiCo has cut its Poppi earnout estimate to almost nothing, brands are getting sued over AI-edited ads, big companies are locking out AI agents, and Hark's free pizza launch charged people for pizza. Chris Orzechowski of Orzy Media is guest host, with Phil Kiel of Taikun Digital and Sean Wendt of dtcmvp in the saddle. Watch the show live →

✶ THE CURRENT THING ✶ M&A

PepsiCo slashes Poppi's $300M earnout. Founders, take the cash.

PepsiCo paid nearly $2 billion for Poppi last year, plus up to $300 million more if the soda hit undisclosed growth milestones by Q3 2027. That earnout estimate was $278 million in December and $117 million in June. As of Sept. 5, it's about $12 million (The Star/Bloomberg).

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Kenneth Shea: "At this rate, it seems plausible that they may not pay any of the US$300mil." PepsiCo says Poppi still grew volume double digits in Q3. Founder Twitter's verdict was fast. Levelsio: "When you sell your business, never ever agree on an earn out. Always get it in cash!" (levelsio on X)

OPERATOR TAKE: An earnout is a bet that someone else runs your brand as well as you did. Price it like a lottery ticket and negotiate the upfront number like it's the only one.

Today's Guests: Guest host Chris Orzechowski, Phil Kiel at 12:45 CT, Sean Wendt at 1:30 CT. Watch live on YouTube.
Stories of the Day: Out on the Range

✶ CREATIVE & LEGAL

AI ad creative is getting brands sued

Pin creator Catherine Amador sued the Pin Trading App on Oct. 2, saying a paid Facebook ad lightened her skin and changed her features. The app blamed Meta's auto-enabled Advantage+ creative enhancements and admitted it didn't review the ads. Model Francheska Pujols is suing Rainbow Shops over AI-generated images too (The Fashion Law).

OPERATOR TAKE: Turn off Advantage+ creative enhancements on creator content, and get AI-modification rights in writing before you run a single UGC ad.

✶ AGENTIC COMMERCE

Delta, Chase and Amazon block AI agents as the war on agents starts

Amazon reportedly blocks Meta's Muse agent, Chase blocks outside agents from running retail accounts, and Schwab's CEO says it stops "unauthorized agents trying to move client money." Delta says it has "no third-party booking integration" yet (Digg). Greg Isenberg's read: "Companies block agents because agents skip the ads and upsells" (Greg Isenberg on X).

OPERATOR TAKE: Decide now whether agents are a channel or a threat for your store. Blocking them protects upsells today, but it may hide you from tomorrow's shoppers.

✶ LAUNCH LESSONS

Hark's free pizza launch charged people for pizza

Hark promised "$1,000,000 of pizza" to celebrate Hark Pro: tell the app to order a free pizza and it applies a $30 DoorDash credit (Hark on X). Then Hark admitted "there was a bug for a short period of time when the promo was not applied and some users were charged in full" (Hark on X).

OPERATOR TAKE: A giveaway is a load test. If the promo can fail at checkout, assume it will at peak, and have the refund message ready before you hit post.

Today's Featured Sponsor: Richpanel
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Great Finds

1. Nike drops a Pennywise LeBron

Nike's 10-shoe Halloween basketball pack starts releasing Oct. 23. The headliner is the LeBron 24 "Storm Drain," a nod to LeBron's 2017 Pennywise costume from IT. Wemby, Giannis, KD's "Slim Reaper" and Caitlin Clark's "Jinx" round it out (Sneaker News, Nice Kicks on X).

2. Elon wants ugly ads off X

Elon says ugly, shrill or overhyped ads are no longer welcome on X (Elon Musk on X). He already banned hashtags in ads last year, calling them "the esthetic nightmare." DTC Twitter, the proud home of the ugly ad, is taking it personally. Time to check what your X creative actually looks like.

3. GoodPop redesigns the packaging that lifted sales 40%

GoodPop's 2021 redesign drove a 40% sales jump and won the Designalytics grand prize, with 75% of category buyers preferring it (Packaging World). Now it's refreshing again to "pop through the freezer door" (Nosh). Would you touch a winner? (LinkedIn)

4. Amazon passes 1M robots

Amazon now runs more than one million robots across its fulfillment network, a milestone it first hit last year, and uses a generative AI model called DeepFleet to route them more efficiently (TechCrunch, Polymarket on X). Your 3PL's prices are about to look different.

5. A Frosted Cranberry Energizer

McDonald's energy drink lineup is getting a holiday spin, with a Frosted Cranberry Energizer spotted by franchisee accounts (McFranchisee on X). It follows the Red Bull dragonberry energizer, the chain's first-ever energy drink (Food Business News). Seasonal flavors are still the cheapest launch in retail.

The Partner Corral

ROKT AFTERSELL
Post-purchase upsells and premium offers that add profit to every order. aftersell.com/offers

INTELLIGEMS
Free AI-powered audit that gives you three ideas you can test today. intelligems.io/audit

SEGUNO
The Shopify-native marketing suite. Ecomm Cowboy listeners get 22% off for two months. seguno.com/cowboy

TIE
Identifies up to 70% of your site traffic and pushes those shoppers into Klaviyo flows. meettie.com/cowboy

UNIVERSAL ADS
Performance TV for DTC brands. Code UACOWBOY gets $1,500 in matched ad credits. universalads.com

NORTHBEAM
Measurement built from real orders, clicks, and verified ad views. Book your demo today. northbeam.io

PROPPEL
Recruiting for ecom brands, paid on performance. Mention Ecomm Cowboy for 10% off. weareproppel.com

TRENDTRACK
See every ad, email, and newsletter your competitors run, refreshed every 24 hours. trendtrack.io

OUTERSIGNAL
Find the VIPs hiding in your customer list. Mention Ecomm Cowboy for a free persona report. outersignal.com

POSTSCRIPT
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